Titulo:
Factores relevantes de la inestabilidad del mercado petrolero
.
Sumario:
El mercado petrolero es inestable e impredecible debido al impacto de los elementos politicos, militares, tecnologicos y climaticos. La nueva y estrecha relación con el mercado inanciero, en particular con los mercados a futuro, complica el panorama. Este articulo analiza el impacto de la especulacion bursatil sobre el precio del petroleo y la relacion con las variables estructurales en el periodo 2000-2017. Los resultados muestran que las variables financieras elevan la inestabilidad y atenuan la influencia de los factores de oferta y demanda.
Guardado en:
0124-5996
2346-2450
23
2021-07-01
227
256
Alicia Puyana, Isabel Rodríguez Peña, Lilia García Manrique - 2021
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
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UNIVERSIDAD EXTERNADO DE COLOMBIA |
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| country_str |
Colombia |
| collection |
Revista de Economía Institucional |
| title |
Factores relevantes de la inestabilidad del mercado petrolero |
| spellingShingle |
Factores relevantes de la inestabilidad del mercado petrolero Puyana, Alicia Rodríguez Peña, Isabel García Manrique, Lilia Financial market, oil, speculation, volatility, supply and demand Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 mercado financiero, petroleo, especulacion, volatilidad, oferta y demanda Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 mercado financeiro, petróleo, especulação, volatilidade, oferta e demanda Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 |
| title_short |
Factores relevantes de la inestabilidad del mercado petrolero |
| title_full |
Factores relevantes de la inestabilidad del mercado petrolero |
| title_fullStr |
Factores relevantes de la inestabilidad del mercado petrolero |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Factores relevantes de la inestabilidad del mercado petrolero |
| title_sort |
factores relevantes de la inestabilidad del mercado petrolero |
| title_eng |
Factors explaining the instability of the international oil market |
| description |
El mercado petrolero es inestable e impredecible debido al impacto de los elementos politicos, militares, tecnologicos y climaticos. La nueva y estrecha relación con el mercado inanciero, en particular con los mercados a futuro, complica el panorama. Este articulo analiza el impacto de la especulacion bursatil sobre el precio del petroleo y la relacion con las variables estructurales en el periodo 2000-2017. Los resultados muestran que las variables financieras elevan la inestabilidad y atenuan la influencia de los factores de oferta y demanda.
|
| description_eng |
There is evidence on the instability and unpredictability of the oil market due to political, military, technological and climatic phenomena. The novel and close relationship between the energy and financial markets, particularly futures market, adds complexity. The article aims to understand the impact of speculation on oil prices and the relationship with structural variables during the period 2000-2017. The effect although strong, does not cancel the supply and demand effects.
|
| author |
Puyana, Alicia Rodríguez Peña, Isabel García Manrique, Lilia |
| author_facet |
Puyana, Alicia Rodríguez Peña, Isabel García Manrique, Lilia |
| topic |
Financial market, oil, speculation, volatility, supply and demand Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 mercado financiero, petroleo, especulacion, volatilidad, oferta y demanda Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 mercado financeiro, petróleo, especulação, volatilidade, oferta e demanda Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 |
| topic_facet |
Financial market, oil, speculation, volatility, supply and demand Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 mercado financiero, petroleo, especulacion, volatilidad, oferta y demanda Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 mercado financeiro, petróleo, especulação, volatilidade, oferta e demanda Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 |
| topicspa_str_mv |
mercado financiero, petroleo, especulacion, volatilidad, oferta y demanda Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 mercado financeiro, petróleo, especulação, volatilidade, oferta e demanda Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 |
| citationvolume |
23 |
| citationissue |
45 |
| citationedition |
Núm. 45 , Año 2021 : Julio-diciembre |
| publisher |
Universidad Externado de Colombia |
| ispartofjournal |
Revista de Economía Institucional |
| source |
https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/ecoins/article/view/7349 |
| language |
spa |
| format |
Article |
| rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 Alicia Puyana, Isabel Rodríguez Peña, Lilia García Manrique - 2021 Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0. info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| references |
<p>Arezki, R., Loungani, P., van der Ploeg, R. et al. (2014). Understanding international commodity price fluctuations. Journal of International Money and Finance, 42, 1-336.<br>Baffes, J., Kose, A., Ohnsorge, F. et al. (2015). The great plunge in oil prices: Causes, consequences, and policy responses. Banco Mundial, Working Paper.<br>Baum, C (2014). ARCH and MGARCH models. EC 823. Applied Econometrics. Boston College.<br>Beddor, C. Chen, W. y de Leon, R. (2009). America’s future enhancing our national security by reducing oil dependence and environmental damage. Center for American Progress, [https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/reports/2009/08/25/6520/securing-americas-future/].<br>Behar, A. y Ritz, R. A. (2016). OPEC vs US shale oil: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy. Energy Policy Research Group working paper 1612. University of Cambridge.<br>Bernanke, B. (2016). The relationship between stocks and oil prices, [https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben.../the-relationship-betweenstocks-and-oil-prices/].<br>Bordoff, J. (2018). Congressional testimony. Center of global energy policy, Columbia University.<br>British Petroleum. (2020). Statistical review of world energy, [http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview].<br>Cheng, I.-H. y Xiong, W. (2013). The financialization of commodity markets, [https://www.nber.org/papers/w19642].<br>CBOE. (2018). Global markets, [http://www.cboe.com/].<br>EIA (2017) Annual energy outlook retrospective review: Evaluation of 2016 and prior reference case projections, [https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/].<br>EIA. (2018a). “What drives oil price? [https://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/crudeoil/]<br>EIA (2018b). The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), [https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/m057index.php]. Cuál es a y cuál b.<br>EIA. (2020b). International energy outlook, [https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/ieo2019.pdf ].<br>EIA (2020a) Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, [https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm].<br>Fattouh, B. (2018). The oil market’s mixed price signals, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, [https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/The-Oil-Markets-Mixed-Price-Signals-Comment.pdf ]<br>Fattouh, B. (2016). The low-cost OPEC cycle: The big elephant in the room, presentación en el Banco de Inglaterra, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.<br>FMI. (2018). World Energy Outlook. Greenspan (2006). The road to price stability, [https://www.hsgac.senate.gov//imo/media/doc/REPORTExcessiveSpecullationintheWheatMarketwoexhibitschartsJune2409.pdf?attempt=2].<br>Greenspan, A. (2008). Comparecencia ante el Congreso de los Estados Unidos, sobre las fuentes de la crisis financiera, [http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/10/23/greenspan-testimony-on-sources-of-financialcrisis/].<br>Hamilton, J. (2008). Understanding crude oil prices. Energy Journal, 30(2), 179-206.<br>IEA. (2011). The IEA model of short-term energy security (MOSES), [https://www.iea.org/publications].<br>IEA. (2015). Energy supply security 2014: The emergency eesponse of IEA countries, París.<br>IEA. (2017). Oil market report, [https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/currentreport/].<br>Kaldor, N. (1939). Speculation and economic stability. Review of Economic Studies, 7(1), 1-27<br>Kartsakli, M. y Adams, Z. (2017). Has crude oil become a financial asset? Evidence from ten years of financialization. School of Finance working paper 2017/1010.<br>Merino, A. (2011) Una descripción del mercado de futuros del petróleo: actividad, agentes y regulaciones. En J. C. Aranzadi M. y M. A. Lasheras M. (dirs.), Los nuevos mercados energéticos. Madrid: Fundación de Estudios Financieros.<br>Morana, C. (2017). Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence for the euro area. Economic Modelling, 64, 82-96.<br>Morana, C. (2013). Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation. Journal of banking & finance, 37(1), 206-226.<br>Nasser, A. (2017), Conferencia dictada en el Center of Global Energy policy, Universidad de Columbia. [https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/saudi-aramco-president-ceo-amin-nasser-delivers-keynoteremarks-2017-columbia-global-energy-summitOECD/FAO. (2016)]<br>OECD-FAO. (2016). Agricultural outlook. OECD Publishing, [http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2016-en].<br>OPEC. (2016). Annual report, [https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/ASB2016.pdf ].<br>OPEC. Interactive data, [http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/340.htm].<br>Puyana, A (2015), La economía petrolera en un mercado politizado y global. México y Colombia. México DF: Flacso.<br>Rodríguez, I. (2017) Reprimarización con financiarización, un análisis desde el mercado petrolero en América Latina. En Levy, N. (ed.), Financiarización y crisis de la estructura productiva en países en desarrollo (pp. 239-273). México DF: UNAM.<br>Rossi, G. D. (2013). La volatilidad en mercados financieros y de commodities: un repaso de sus causas y la evidencia reciente. Invenio: Revista de investigación académica, 30, 59-74.<br>Shiller, R. J. (2014). Speculative asset prices. American Economic Review, 104(6), 1486-1517.<br>Sheikh Yamani (2000). Predicts price crash as age of oil ends. Entrevista en The Telegraph.<br>World Bank (2020). Data Bank. [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IE.PPI.ENGY.CD].<br>United States Senate (2009). Excessive speculation in the wheat market, [https://www.hsgac.senate.gov//imo/media/doc/REPORTExcessiveSpecullationintheWheatMarketwoexhibitschartsJune2409.pdf?attempt=2].<br>Wray, L. Randall (2008). The commodities market bubble: Money manager capitalism and the financialization of commodities. Public policy brief Levy Economics Institute, 96, 5-54.<br>Zahary, L. (2018). The impact of the Iran nuclear agreement, [https://css.ethz.ch/en/services/digital-library/publications/publication.html/d8c55469-4017-4d94-8272-0662a764df14].</p> |
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Factores relevantes de la inestabilidad del mercado petrolero Factors explaining the instability of the international oil market El mercado petrolero es inestable e impredecible debido al impacto de los elementos politicos, militares, tecnologicos y climaticos. La nueva y estrecha relación con el mercado inanciero, en particular con los mercados a futuro, complica el panorama. Este articulo analiza el impacto de la especulacion bursatil sobre el precio del petroleo y la relacion con las variables estructurales en el periodo 2000-2017. Los resultados muestran que las variables financieras elevan la inestabilidad y atenuan la influencia de los factores de oferta y demanda. There is evidence on the instability and unpredictability of the oil market due to political, military, technological and climatic phenomena. The novel and close relationship between the energy and financial markets, particularly futures market, adds complexity. The article aims to understand the impact of speculation on oil prices and the relationship with structural variables during the period 2000-2017. The effect although strong, does not cancel the supply and demand effects. Puyana, Alicia Rodríguez Peña, Isabel García Manrique, Lilia Financial market, oil, speculation, volatility, supply and demand Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 mercado financiero, petroleo, especulacion, volatilidad, oferta y demanda Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 mercado financeiro, petróleo, especulação, volatilidade, oferta e demanda Q02, Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47 23 45 Núm. 45 , Año 2021 : Julio-diciembre Artículo de revista Journal article 2021-07-01T07:01:15Z 2021-07-01T07:01:15Z 2021-07-01 application/pdf text/html text/xml Universidad Externado de Colombia Revista de Economía Institucional 0124-5996 2346-2450 https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/ecoins/article/view/7349 10.18601/01245996.v23n45.11 https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v23n45.11 spa http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 Alicia Puyana, Isabel Rodríguez Peña, Lilia García Manrique - 2021 Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0. 227 256 <p>Arezki, R., Loungani, P., van der Ploeg, R. et al. (2014). Understanding international commodity price fluctuations. Journal of International Money and Finance, 42, 1-336.<br>Baffes, J., Kose, A., Ohnsorge, F. et al. (2015). The great plunge in oil prices: Causes, consequences, and policy responses. Banco Mundial, Working Paper.<br>Baum, C (2014). ARCH and MGARCH models. EC 823. Applied Econometrics. Boston College.<br>Beddor, C. Chen, W. y de Leon, R. (2009). America’s future enhancing our national security by reducing oil dependence and environmental damage. Center for American Progress, [https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/reports/2009/08/25/6520/securing-americas-future/].<br>Behar, A. y Ritz, R. A. (2016). OPEC vs US shale oil: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy. Energy Policy Research Group working paper 1612. University of Cambridge.<br>Bernanke, B. (2016). The relationship between stocks and oil prices, [https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben.../the-relationship-betweenstocks-and-oil-prices/].<br>Bordoff, J. (2018). Congressional testimony. Center of global energy policy, Columbia University.<br>British Petroleum. (2020). Statistical review of world energy, [http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview].<br>Cheng, I.-H. y Xiong, W. (2013). The financialization of commodity markets, [https://www.nber.org/papers/w19642].<br>CBOE. (2018). Global markets, [http://www.cboe.com/].<br>EIA (2017) Annual energy outlook retrospective review: Evaluation of 2016 and prior reference case projections, [https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/].<br>EIA. (2018a). “What drives oil price? [https://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/crudeoil/]<br>EIA (2018b). The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), [https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/m057index.php]. Cuál es a y cuál b.<br>EIA. (2020b). International energy outlook, [https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/ieo2019.pdf ].<br>EIA (2020a) Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, [https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm].<br>Fattouh, B. (2018). The oil market’s mixed price signals, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, [https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/The-Oil-Markets-Mixed-Price-Signals-Comment.pdf ]<br>Fattouh, B. (2016). The low-cost OPEC cycle: The big elephant in the room, presentación en el Banco de Inglaterra, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.<br>FMI. (2018). World Energy Outlook. Greenspan (2006). The road to price stability, [https://www.hsgac.senate.gov//imo/media/doc/REPORTExcessiveSpecullationintheWheatMarketwoexhibitschartsJune2409.pdf?attempt=2].<br>Greenspan, A. (2008). Comparecencia ante el Congreso de los Estados Unidos, sobre las fuentes de la crisis financiera, [http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/10/23/greenspan-testimony-on-sources-of-financialcrisis/].<br>Hamilton, J. (2008). Understanding crude oil prices. Energy Journal, 30(2), 179-206.<br>IEA. (2011). The IEA model of short-term energy security (MOSES), [https://www.iea.org/publications].<br>IEA. (2015). Energy supply security 2014: The emergency eesponse of IEA countries, París.<br>IEA. (2017). Oil market report, [https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/currentreport/].<br>Kaldor, N. (1939). Speculation and economic stability. Review of Economic Studies, 7(1), 1-27<br>Kartsakli, M. y Adams, Z. (2017). Has crude oil become a financial asset? Evidence from ten years of financialization. School of Finance working paper 2017/1010.<br>Merino, A. (2011) Una descripción del mercado de futuros del petróleo: actividad, agentes y regulaciones. En J. C. Aranzadi M. y M. A. Lasheras M. (dirs.), Los nuevos mercados energéticos. Madrid: Fundación de Estudios Financieros.<br>Morana, C. (2017). Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence for the euro area. Economic Modelling, 64, 82-96.<br>Morana, C. (2013). Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation. Journal of banking & finance, 37(1), 206-226.<br>Nasser, A. (2017), Conferencia dictada en el Center of Global Energy policy, Universidad de Columbia. [https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/saudi-aramco-president-ceo-amin-nasser-delivers-keynoteremarks-2017-columbia-global-energy-summitOECD/FAO. (2016)]<br>OECD-FAO. (2016). Agricultural outlook. OECD Publishing, [http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2016-en].<br>OPEC. (2016). Annual report, [https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/ASB2016.pdf ].<br>OPEC. Interactive data, [http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/340.htm].<br>Puyana, A (2015), La economía petrolera en un mercado politizado y global. México y Colombia. México DF: Flacso.<br>Rodríguez, I. (2017) Reprimarización con financiarización, un análisis desde el mercado petrolero en América Latina. En Levy, N. (ed.), Financiarización y crisis de la estructura productiva en países en desarrollo (pp. 239-273). México DF: UNAM.<br>Rossi, G. D. (2013). La volatilidad en mercados financieros y de commodities: un repaso de sus causas y la evidencia reciente. Invenio: Revista de investigación académica, 30, 59-74.<br>Shiller, R. J. (2014). Speculative asset prices. American Economic Review, 104(6), 1486-1517.<br>Sheikh Yamani (2000). Predicts price crash as age of oil ends. Entrevista en The Telegraph.<br>World Bank (2020). Data Bank. [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IE.PPI.ENGY.CD].<br>United States Senate (2009). Excessive speculation in the wheat market, [https://www.hsgac.senate.gov//imo/media/doc/REPORTExcessiveSpecullationintheWheatMarketwoexhibitschartsJune2409.pdf?attempt=2].<br>Wray, L. Randall (2008). The commodities market bubble: Money manager capitalism and the financialization of commodities. Public policy brief Levy Economics Institute, 96, 5-54.<br>Zahary, L. (2018). The impact of the Iran nuclear agreement, [https://css.ethz.ch/en/services/digital-library/publications/publication.html/d8c55469-4017-4d94-8272-0662a764df14].</p> https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/ecoins/article/download/7349/10071 https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/ecoins/article/download/7349/13171 https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/ecoins/article/download/7349/13271 info:eu-repo/semantics/article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTREF info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Text Publication |